{
  "$schema": "http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#",
  "id": "https://nightboxllc.com/.well-known/strategic-stability.json",
  "title": "Strategic Stability + Nuclear Non-Proliferation (Domain #3)",
  "version": "1.0",
  "issued": "2026-05-19",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "NIGHTBOX LLC",
    "url": "https://nightboxllc.com",
    "sam_uei": "UHCAB6UXXKF2",
    "cage_code": "20BA7"
  },
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "human_readable_uri": "https://nightboxllc.com/strategic-stability",
  "human_readable_uri_ru": "https://nightboxllc.com/ru/strategic-stability",

  "anchor_doctrine": {
    "framework": "Liaison Framework v2.3",
    "framework_uri": "https://nightboxllc.com/.well-known/liaison-framework.json",
    "practical_friendship_program_domain": 3,
    "domain_name": "Strategic Stability + Nuclear Non-Proliferation"
  },

  "thesis": "The bilateral US-RF arms control architecture produced the longest continuous strategic-restraint regime in history — six decades from PTBT (1963) through New START's expiration on 2026-02-05. This is currently the most atrophied of any Practical Friendship Program domain and the one with the highest mutual cost of failure. Closing the architectural gap is the most consequential bilateral move available.",

  "current_state": {
    "new_start_expiration_date": "2026-02-05",
    "successor_framework_status": "no formally agreed successor in force at publication",
    "longest_treaty_gap_in_modern_era": true,
    "note": "First period in over half a century without a bilateral strategic-arms treaty in legal effect between the two states."
  },

  "treaty_timeline": [
    {"year": 1963, "name": "Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT)", "status": "in_force", "type": "multilateral", "us_party": true, "rf_party": true},
    {"year": 1968, "name": "Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)", "status": "in_force", "type": "multilateral", "us_party": true, "rf_party": true},
    {"year": 1972, "name": "Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM)", "status": "lapsed_us_withdrew_2002", "type": "bilateral"},
    {"year": 1972, "name": "Biological Weapons Convention (BWC)", "status": "in_force", "type": "multilateral", "us_party": true, "rf_party": true},
    {"year": 1974, "name": "Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT)", "status": "in_force", "type": "bilateral", "us_party": true, "rf_party": true},
    {"year": 1976, "name": "Peaceful Nuclear Explosions Treaty (PNET)", "status": "in_force", "type": "bilateral", "us_party": true, "rf_party": true},
    {"year": 1987, "name": "Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF)", "status": "lapsed_2019", "type": "bilateral", "note": "Reagan-Gorbachev. Eliminated 500-5500km ground-launched missiles."},
    {"year": 1991, "name": "START I", "status": "expired_2009", "type": "bilateral"},
    {"year": "1991-2014", "name": "Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction", "status": "discontinued_2014", "type": "bilateral_program"},
    {"year": 1992, "name": "Open Skies Treaty", "status": "lapsed_us_2020_rf_2021", "type": "multilateral"},
    {"year": 1993, "name": "Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)", "status": "in_force", "type": "multilateral", "us_party": true, "rf_party": true},
    {"year": 1996, "name": "Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)", "status": "not_in_force", "type": "multilateral", "note": "US signed not ratified. RF ratified 2000, de-ratified Nov 2023."},
    {"year": 2002, "name": "Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT/Moscow)", "status": "superseded_2011", "type": "bilateral"},
    {"year": 2010, "name": "New START", "status": "expired_2026-02-05", "type": "bilateral", "note": "Extended 2021. RF suspended participation Feb 2023. Treaty terminal date 2026-02-05."},
    {"year": 2015, "name": "JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal)", "status": "fragmented_us_withdrew_2018", "type": "multilateral_p5plus1"},
    {"year": 2017, "name": "Geneva Strategic Stability Dialogue framework", "status": "paused_2022", "type": "bilateral_consultation"}
  ],

  "still_in_force": [
    {"id": "NPT", "name": "Non-Proliferation Treaty (1968)", "type": "multilateral", "scope": "Foundation of global non-proliferation regime. 191 signatory states."},
    {"id": "PTBT", "name": "Partial Test Ban Treaty (1963)", "type": "multilateral", "scope": "Atmospheric, outer-space, underwater test ban."},
    {"id": "TTBT", "name": "Threshold Test Ban Treaty (1974)", "type": "bilateral", "scope": "150-kt limit on underground tests."},
    {"id": "PNET", "name": "Peaceful Nuclear Explosions Treaty (1976)", "type": "bilateral"},
    {"id": "BWC", "name": "Biological Weapons Convention (1972)", "type": "multilateral"},
    {"id": "CWC", "name": "Chemical Weapons Convention (1993)", "type": "multilateral"},
    {"id": "IAEA", "name": "IAEA Statute (1957)", "type": "multilateral", "scope": "Both states founding members. Continuous technical cooperation."},
    {"id": "UNSC_P5", "name": "UN Security Council P5 membership", "scope": "Both states permanent members."}
  ],

  "structural_facts": [
    {"fact": "Approximately 90% of the world's nuclear warheads are held by the US and RF combined.", "approximate_counts": {"us_warheads": 5500, "rf_warheads": 5900, "cn_warheads": 600}},
    {"fact": "Strategic interests in non-proliferation overlap completely between US and RF.", "evidence": "Continuous P5-consensus voting on Iran, North Korea, Libya disarmament. Sixty years of bilateral non-proliferation alignment."}
  ],

  "editorial_recommendation_steps": [
    {"step": 1, "action": "Re-open Geneva Strategic Stability Dialogue (paused 2022 with established working agenda)"},
    {"step": 2, "action": "Initiate publicly visible New-START-successor framework talks"},
    {"step": 3, "action": "Reactivate Bilateral Consultative Commission (BCC) — New START implementation working body"},
    {"step": 4, "action": "Restart P5 Process for nuclear-weapon-state coordination (US, RF, UK, France, China)"},
    {"step": 5, "action": "Continue and expand IAEA coordination on Iran, DPRK, and peaceful-uses files"}
  ],

  "scope_discipline": {
    "in_scope": [
      "Editorial documentation of treaty record",
      "Public-record advocacy for re-engagement of established institutional channels"
    ],
    "outside_scope": [
      "Specific treaty-text language or term advocacy",
      "Analysis of classified, sensitive, or controlled nuclear-program information",
      "Commentary on either state's force posture, declaratory policy, or operational doctrine",
      "Track-1 (state-to-state) or track-1.5 (semi-official) arms control proceedings",
      "Implementation, verification, or monitoring of any nuclear instrument"
    ],
    "summary": "Wyoming LLCs document and advocate process re-engagement at the editorial level. Substantive arms-control work belongs to State Department, NSC, Pentagon, MFA, Rosatom, IAEA, and the Bilateral Consultative Commission."
  },

  "related_manifests": [
    "https://nightboxllc.com/.well-known/liaison-framework.json",
    "https://nightboxllc.com/.well-known/practical-friendship-program.json"
  ],

  "contact": "artem@nightboxllc.com"
}